Colgate-Palmolive (CL) Dividend Stock Analysis

Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets consumer products worldwide. It operates in two segments, Oral, Personal, and Home Care; and Pet Nutrition. The company recently increased its quarterly dividend by 20.40% to 53 cents/share. This is the forty-seventh consecutive dividend increase for Colgate-Palmolive, which is a dividend champion.

Over the past decade this dividend stock has returned 4.30% per annum.

Earnings per share have increased by 11.10% on average since 2000. Since 2000 the number of shares outstanding has decreased from 625 million to 525 million, or an average decrease of 1.90% annually. Analysts estimate that EPS would grow by 9.80% to $4.80 in FY 2010. FY 2011 EPS are expected to increase by 11.40% from there to $5.35.

Sales outside North America accounted for two-thirds of the company’srevenues. The company’s strong competitive advantages in the oral healthcare field plus the low capital requirements have enabled it to generate high returns on capital.

Returns on Equity have been truly phenomenal, having never fallen below 80% since 2000.

Annual dividends have increased by 11.80% on average over the past decade, which is slightly higher than the growth in earnings.

A 12 % growth in dividends translates into the dividend payment doubling every six years on average. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1976, Colgate Palmolive has actually managed to double its dividend payment every eight and a half years on average.

The dividend payout ratio has consistently remained below 50%, with the exception of a brief spike to 50.80% in 2006. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.

The company trades at a P/E of 18.80 times earnings and has an adequately covered dividend payment. The current yield of 2.60% is below my 3% entry threshold. If we look at the yield from the past decade however, CL has yielded more than 3% only during the lows in early 2009. Because of this I initiated a position in Colgate recently. I would look forward to add to this position on dips below $71, which would be my ideal entry price.

Universal Corporation (UVV) Dividend Stock Analysis

Universal Corporation (UVV), together with its subsidiaries, operates as the leaf tobacco merchants and processors worldwide. It engages in selecting, procuring, buying, processing, packing, storing, supplying, shipping, and financing leaf tobacco for sale to, or for the account of, manufacturers of consumer tobacco products. This dividend champion has raised dividends for 39 consecutive years.

Over the past decade, Universal has delivered a total return of 11.60% to shareholders.

At the same time earnings per share have grown by 1.50% on average since 2000. Analysts expect UVV to earn $5.25/share in 2010 and $5.63/share in 2011. This is an increase over the $4.32/share Universal earned in 2009. The slow growth in tobacco consumption worldwide and risk of increased taxation and regulation in the sector represent one of the major risks for the company going forward.

The annual dividend has increased by 4% annually over the past decade. A 4% growth in dividends translates into the distribution doubling every 18 years. The current quarterly dividend of $0.46/share is double what it was in 1993-1994. The latest dividend increase was for 2.20% in November 2009.

The return on equity has generally decreased from a high of 22% in 2000 down to 15.30% in 2009. I generally like to see a stable value of this indicator over time.

The dividend payout ratio has generally remained below 50%, with the exception of 2006 and 2007, which struck as outliers.

Overall Universal Corporation does appear to be attractively valued, trading at a P/E of 9, yielding 3.90% and having an adequately covered dividend. The main problem for the company is the slow earnings growth, and concentration in the tobacco industry, which comes with its own inherent risks. I already have exposure to the tobacco sector through my position of already, Altria (MO) and Philip Morris International(PM). However I would consider initiating a position in UVV on dips whenever I have extra cash on hand.

10 Weekend Links

Sometimes I get 10 interesting links to share with my readers. This weekend i am continuing my linkfest with the following articles:

The Kirk Report outlined a list of "The World's Most Ethical Companies, which have outperformed the stockmarket since 2002.

Canadian Capitalist asked his readers about the books they love to read.

DividendsValue discussed the concept of International Income Investing. Make sure to check his analysis of McDonald's Corporation on Div-Net as well.

The Dividend Guy is analyzing the effect of Fixed Income on his Asset Allocation.

Dividend Tree analyzed Qualcomm.

Wide Moad Investing keeps analyzing Buffett's letters to shareholders. He is up to 1981 now. WMI has 28 more years to analyze.

It's not just Warren Buffett who likes the railways - The Money Gardener is bullish on canadian pacific.

Jae from Old School Value reminiscenses on his stock market experiences in How to Invest In the Stock Market-Background

Blogger Pinyo from Moolanomy has created a headlines aggregator called Great Nexus. Make sure to check it out.

Get Rich Slowly has an interesting post on Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio.

Nucor Corporation (NUE) Dividend Stock Analysis

Nucor Corporation and its subsidiaries engage in the manufacture and sale of steel and steel products in North America. It operates in two segments, Steel Mills and Steel Products.
Nucor Corporation is a dividend aristocrat as well as a component of the S&P 500 index. It has been increasing its dividends for the past 34 consecutive years. From the end of 1998 up until October 2008 this dividend growth stock has delivered an annual average total return of 14.70 % to its shareholders. This year however the stock is down about 40% as the commodity boom seems to have dried up the demand for materials, including steel, across the globe.

At the same time company has managed to deliver an 24.20% average annual increase in its EPS since 1998.

The ROE has increased from 13% range in 1998 to 30% by 2007.

Annual dividend payments have increased by an average of 39.70% annually over the past 10 years, which is much higher than the growth in EPS. Nucor’s last quarterly payment of $0.52/share consisted of $0.32 of regular dividend and $0.20/share in supplemental dividends.
A 40% growth in dividends translates into the dividend payment doubling almost every 2 years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1973, NUE has actually managed to double its dividend payment every four years on average. The last major dividend raise was between 2005 and 2006 when dividends increased by a whooping 475% in one year, helped by increased demand for metals worldwide. After this major move total dividends paid have actually decreased by 15% mainly because of a decrease in the supplemental dividends.

If we invested $100,000 in NUE on December 31, 1998 we would have bought 9249 shares (Adjusted for two 2:1 stock splits in 2004 and 2006). In March 1999 your quarterly dividend income would have been $300. If you kept reinvesting the dividends though instead of spending them, your quarterly dividend income would have risen to $5806 by September 2008. For a period of 10 years, your quarterly dividend income would have increased sixteen times. If you reinvested it however, your quarterly dividend income would have increased over nineteen times!
Investors should proceed with caution in the future as such dividend growth rates are definitely unsustainable given the recent collapse in commodities prices and talk about deflation and depression.

The dividend payout has slowly increased from upper twenties to high forties over our study period. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.

I think that NUE is attractively valued with its low price/earnings multiple of 5, a not too high DPR, as well as an above average dividend yield at 5.90% (3.80% if you only count the base dividend). The current dividend yield is way above average for this stock which could compensate for the lower expected growth in company’s fundamentals or even be a warning sign that Nucor’s dividend is in danger.

I do believe that NUE is an attractive buy candidate on dips below $32, since it adds some further diversification exposure to a dividend growth portfolio. Since Nucors main business, steel is a highly cyclical business I would proceed in purchasing NUE stock cautiously. Over the next few years I wouldn’t be surprised if this stock retraces all of its gains during the 2003- 2007 bull market and ends up below $20/share.

This post appeared on 114th Edition of the Festival of Stocks.

Chevron Corporation (CVX) Dividend Stock Analysis

Chevron Corporation operates as an integrated energy company worldwide. The company’s organized into several segments including Petroleum operations, chemical operations coal mining, power generation,insurance, and real estate activities.

Chevron is a dividend achiever as well as a component of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials indexes. It has been increasing its dividends for the past 20 consecutive years. From the end of 1999 up until September 2008 this dividend stock has delivered an annual average total return of 11.10 % to its shareholders. The stock has lost about four percent of its value so far in 2008.

At the same time company has managed to deliver a 27.00% average annual increase in its EPS since 1999, supported by the commodities bull market of the past decade.

The ROE fluctuated between 5% and 35%. The past couple of years have been characterized by higher returns on equity. 

Annual dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years by an average of 7.10% annually, which is much lower than the growth in EPS. Using the rule of 72 a 7% growth in dividends translates into the dividend payment doubling almost every ten years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1988, CVX has indeed managed to double its dividendpayment every ten years on average. 

It’s interesting to note that both XOMand CVX have not kept pace with the EPS increases by raising their dividends accordingly. Instead those oil behemoths have decided to make stock buybacks, which are not as reliable as dividend payments over the long run. I think that CVX and XOM management probably have not increased dividends as fast as earnings because they consider the current commodities boom to be of short term nature.

If we invested $100,000 in CVX on December 31, 1998 we would have been able to purchase 2411 shares (Adjusted for a 2:1 stock split in 2004). In February 1999 your quarterly dividend income would have been $735. If you kept reinvesting the dividends though instead of spending them, your quarterly dividend income would have risen to $2115 by August 2008. For a period of 10 years, your quarterly dividend income would have increased by 113%. If you reinvested it though, your quarterly dividend income would have increased by 188%.

The dividend payout has remained below 50% after 2003. Before that the payout had followed the wide fluctuations in earnings rising above 100% on several occasions. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.

CVX does look attractively valued with its low price/earnings multiple of 9, low DPR as well as attractive yield at 3%. If I had to choose between XOMand CVX, the latter would be the obvious candidate for me. I will look forward to entering a position into thisstock on dips.

Disclosure: I do not own shares of CVX

Relevant Articles:

- BP (BP) Stock Dividend Analysis

- XOM Dividend Analysis

- Emerson Electric (EMR) Dividend Analysis

- Wal-Mart Dividend Analysis

- Free Magazines

International Dividend Achievers for diversification

So far I have concentrated my attention primarily on the Dividend Aristocrats and the High-Yield Dividend aristocrats, both published by the S&P. Those lists include companies which are members of the S&P 1500and which have raised their dividends for more than 25 consecutive years. I have also tried investigating the Broad Dividend Achievers as well, which are stocks that have increased their dividends for at least ten consecutive years.

That wasn't enough for me, however. In my quest for creating a diversified portfolio I have been searching for international dividend growers. There are several lists out there that focus on international dividend growth stocks – Mergents International Dividend Achievers index, S&P/TSX Canadian Dividend Aristocrats, S&P Europe 350 Dividend Aristocrats (EUR).
The list that caught my attention was the International Dividend Achievers list, prepared by Mergent Inc. It is broader than the S&P Europe and Canadian dividend aristocrat’s lists. To quote from the company's website:

The International Dividend Achievers™ Index is designed to track the performance of dividend paying American Depositary Receipts and foreign common stocks trading on major US exchanges. To become eligible for inclusion in the International Dividend Achievers Index a stock must be incorporated outside the United States, trade on the NYSE, NASDAQ or AMEX, and have increased its annual regular dividend payments for the last five or more consecutive years. In addition, requires that a stock's average daily cash volume exceed $500,000 per day in Nov. and Dec. prior to reconstitution.

The international dividend achievers index has closely tracked its benchmark over the past 10 years. It performed better than the benchmark in only 3 of the past 10 years however.

According to Mergents Inc, a $10,000 investment in the International Dividend Achievers Index ten years ago would be worth about $19,279 by the end of July 2008.

There's an ETF that tracks the index. The Ticker is PID.

Relevant Articles:

- Why do I like Dividend Achievers

- Why do I like Dividend Aristocrats?

- High-Yield Dividend aristocrats,

- Historical changes of the S&P Dividend Aristocrats

The ultimate passive investment strategy

I recently read a paper from Jeremy Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz titled “The Long-term Returns on the Original S&P 500 Firms”.

In this paper the authors calculate the total returns of a buy and hold of the original 500 companies in 1957. They found that on average 20 stocks annually have been added and deleted from the index (without considering that a merger of two S&P 500 companies is an addition to the index) since 1957. The authors also used three methods of calculating the returns:

Survivors’ Portfolio (SP). The survivor portfolio consists only of shares of the original S&P 500 firms. Shares of other firms received through mergers are immediately sold and the proceeds invested in the remaining survivor firms in proportion to their market value. For example, when Mobil Oil was merged into Exxon in 1999, shareholders of Mobil are assumed to sell the shares they received from Exxon-Mobil and invest the proceeds in the remaining survivor firms. All spinoffs are immediately sold and the proceeds reinvested in the parent firm. Funds received from privatizations are sold and the proceeds re-invested in the original surviving firms in proportion to their market value.

Direct Descendants’ Portfolio (DDP), which consists of the shares of firms in the survivors’ portfolio plus the shares issued by firms acquiring an original S&P 500 firm. In the case of the Mobil-Exxon merger discussed above, we assume that shareholders of Mobil Oil hold the shares of Exxon that were issued in the merger. If an original firm was taken private, we assume that the cash distributed from the privatization was invested in an indexed portfolio whose returns matched the standard S&P 500 Index.12 If a firm that was taken private is subsequently reissued to the public again, we assume the portfolio repurchases shares in the reissued company with the funds that had been invested in the index at the time the firm went private. As before, spinoffs are immediately sold and the proceeds reinvested in the parent.

Total Descendants’ Portfolio (TDP) and includes all firms in the DDP plus all the spinoffs and other stock distributions issued by the firms in the Direct Descendants’ Portfolio. The only difference between the TDP and the DDP is that the TDP holds all the spinoffs rather than sell them and reinvest in the proceeds in the parent firm. The TDP is identical to the portfolio of a totally passive investor who holds all the spinoffs and shares issued from mergers and never sells any stock.
My favorite portfolio is the Total Descendants portfolio, since it basically represents a very passive investment strategy – buying stock in 500 companies and then forgetting about them for 50 years.

The authors looked into the return of equal weighted and value weighted returns for the three calculation types.

At the end of the paper they determined that by not updating your portfolio of the original 500 companies, with the annual changes in the S&P 500, you’d have outperformed the average pretty handsomely.

My take on this research is that by purchasing the current 500 stocks in the S&P 500, and allocating all stock equally, an investor will be better off in the long run than simply purchasing an ETF. The reason is that ETF’s tend to charge fees of 0.1% annually, which could really add up over time.